The U.S. economy is expected to have added only 59,000 jobs in October, according to the Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC. The forecast follows September's gain of 29,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.2%. Economists attribute that stability to a stagnant labor force, which reduces the number of jobs needed to keep joblessness steady.
Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter, said the workforce is aging and birth rates have been low for decades. She also said immigration has fallen significantly. "Long-term, we're not going to need as many jobs added to the economy to have stable employment because we have fewer people who are available to work," she said.
According to the report, payroll growth averaged 35,000 a month from January 2025 through September 2026. The labor force has shrunk by 434,000 over that period. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.8%.
Other indicators are mixed. Initial jobless claims were 189,000 last week, the lowest since July. Job openings rose by 333,000 in September, and quits reached 3.36 million, the highest in a year and a half. Long-term unemployment has risen, with the number of workers jobless for more than 25 weeks up 495,000 since January 2025. The average duration of unemployment was 24.8 weeks through September.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.