Economists say the economy's main pressures will persist even after Democrats' midterm gains, according to CNBC. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the economy is "in a very kind of fragile place" and that a recession "becomes a much greater risk" if something pushes it off course. He said that isn't the case at the moment.
Zandi said he does not expect a change in economic policy. He pointed to the Iran war, tariffs, trade policy and immigration policy, which he said are all done under executive order rather than through legislation. He said these policies will "continue to be policies that restrain growth and add to inflationary pressures and interest rates."
Zandi called AI data center buildout a key driver of growth and a source of risk. He said "the risks are decidedly to the downside" because growth depends heavily on AI and on equity valuations.
The report cites several economic figures. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, and consumer spending grew 3.8%. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. The consumer price index rose 3.7% in September, up from 2.3% in April 2025. Wage growth adjusted for inflation was down 0.7% from a year earlier in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Gary Cohn, who led the National Economic Council during Trump's first term, said he sees room for agreement on tariffs. He suggested that tariffs passed through Congress could become law rather than executive orders that a future president could rescind.
Morgan Stanley analysts said Democrats would likely look to reverse spending cuts to SNAP and Medicaid made under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. They said policies tied to executive action, including tariffs, geopolitics and export controls, are likely to persist. The national debt stands at $40.5 trillion, and the U.S. ended the year with a deficit just shy of $2 trillion, about 6.1% of GDP.