Trump stated Wednesday that he does not want to pursue a deal with Iran, following reports that the U.S. military is preparing for possible strikes against the country. Speaking at a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, Trump said "the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop." He added that Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, has been working on negotiations and "doing very well."
NBC News reported Wednesday that the U.S. president and his national security team have discussed resuming large-scale military operations in the coming weeks. Axios reported earlier the same day that a possible resumption in armed conflict could include "massive bombing" of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets, with military aggression potentially influencing the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections.
Trump's approval ratings have fallen to a record low amid concerns over high living costs spurred by soaring gasoline and diesel prices, according to the reporting.
Earlier this week, Trump said the biggest problem for Washington was uncertainty about who was running Iran during the conflict talks. Iranian officials rejected those claims. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeli Baghaei said "the problem is actually the opposite," pointing to "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from U.S. officials."
Crude oil prices remain elevated even as Middle East exports recover toward pre-conflict levels. Combined crude volumes exiting the Gulf, excluding Iran, plus volumes from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, reached around 18.5 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data, matching pre-conflict levels.
Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, said "normalisation no longer needs to wait for a deal" and forecasted "slower, uneven normalisation" under continued conflict, with traffic recovering through operational adaptation rather than waiting for a diplomatic trigger.