Iran's stepped-up attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to disrupt a fragile recovery in crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, even as higher shipping costs and U.S. military protection keep some flows moving.
Nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, came under attack over the past month while transiting Hormuz, the Persian Gulf or off Oman's coast, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, a group of U.S.-allied militaries. Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, said Iran attacked roughly two ships for every 100 vessels crossing the strait in the third quarter.
Oil flows now depend on a major U.S. military commitment to protect tankers along a southern route off Oman's coast. Shippers have also adopted a shuttle system, transferring crude from tankers in Hormuz onto vessels in the Gulf of Oman bound for Asia, reducing exposure to Iranian attack but requiring more ships overall.
Current crude exports through Hormuz average 9-10 million barrels per day, according to Windward estimates, compared with a prewar baseline of 14.5 million bpd. Kpler data for the week ended Saturday showed 10.3 million bpd, about 23% below the 13.5 million bpd prewar level. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, called the current system unsustainable financially, citing U.S. military costs, ship-to-ship transfers and elevated tanker rates.
The human cost has been significant. Since July, at least nine sailors died, 18 were injured and three went missing, according to the International Maritime Organization. Shipping crude from the Persian Gulf to China now costs roughly $1 million per day per tanker.
Brent oil prices remain near $100 per barrel, indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of current flows. McNally said prices stay elevated because delivering and insuring crude remains costly. Richard Meade, editor in chief of Lloyd's List, noted that while volumes have recovered, the oil market has not become more secure but rather "more efficient at operating under sustained insecurity."
On Monday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard ordered a tanker to turn around while transiting the strait, threatening attack if it did not comply, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The vessel complied. McNally said freedom of navigation in Hormuz has not been restored, with Tehran continuing to insist it controls the strait.